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Some thoughts on physics, statistics, computing & technology

Three lions and red lines

July 08, 2026 — Andrew Fowlie

Watched England's inspiring victory against Mexico at the Azteca. What a special match and occasion, one of the most memorable and iconic England games of my life.

Pickford, Bellingham and Kane were particularly inspriational. When the going gets tough, lots of England players over the years have dissappeared. They are scared. They don't want the ball. Those three were brave and stepped up and took responsibility.

Immensely dissapointed by the decision to suspend Balogun's three-match ban. A terrible precedent that undermines sporting integrity, fairness and transparency. FIFA are not true to their values, and they gaslight fans and behave as though they are beyond reproach. A redline indeed, and I suspect the beginning of a long and lasting open confrontation betwen UEFA and FIFA.

Whilst this is the most shocking evidence of corruption and collusion between FIFA and global-powers impacting the game, it is only a matter of someone missing a game. We should be just as outraged over FIFA failure to uphold worker and minority rights and safety.

Tags: football, world cup, FIFA

48 teams at the World Cup

June 26, 2026 — Andrew Fowlie

This time round, the World Cup has expanded to 48 teams. My first thought was that this watered-down the competition. There are too many easy games, no group of death with 2 or 3 very strong teams, and minimal risk of elimination for big teams. I stand by most of this. Scotland are in arguably the toughest group. Obviously, 48 isn't a power of 2. The sense that it's watered-down feels more so since the first 72 matches only eliminate 16 teams, since 8 third-placed lucky losers go through to make 32, which is a power of 2, teams into the knockouts.

However, I was overlooking something. The expanded tournament partly addresses something wrong with the tournament: UEFA (European) nations are hugely over-represented. Let's take a look at the data by football federation. There are some quirks, e.g., for football, Australia changed to Asia from Oceania in 2010. I go back to 1998, because that's when the number of teams was last increased to 32.

For this 48 team 2026 edition,

  • 2026: Asia 9, Africa 10, North and Central Americas 6, South America 6, Oceania 1, Europe 16
For previous 32 team editions from 1998 to 2022,
  • 2022: Asia 6, Africa 5, North and Central Americas 4, South Ameria 4, Oceania 0, Europe 13
  • 2018: Asia 5, Africa 5, North and Central Americas 3, South Ameria 5, Oceania 0, Europe 14
  • 2014: Asia 3, Africa 5, North and Central Americas 4, South Ameria 6, Oceaia 0, Europe 13
  • 2010: Asia 4, Africa 6, North and Central Americas 3, South America 5, Oceania 1, Europe 13
  • 2006: Asia 4, Africa 5, North and Central Americas 4, South America 4, Oceania 1, Europe 14
  • 2002: Asia 4, Africa 5, North and Central Americas 3, South America 5, Oceania 0, Europe 15
  • 1998: Asia 4, Africa 5, North and Central Americas 3, South America 5, Oceania 0, Europe 15

The fraction of European teams has dropped from between 13 and 15 of 32, around 41% to 47%, to only 16 of 48, about 33%. This is still too high, in my opinion, but now we have twice as many teams from Africa, and more from Asia. Thus overall I think this is fairer and an improvement.

On that note, it is extraordinary that Nigeria didn't qualify. 10 African teams can make it, and they have footballing heritage and a population of 228 million, far ahead of Ethiopia, who also aren't there, at 129 millon. Egypt, who are there, are third at 115 million. Morocco, arguably the best Africa side and who might go far at the World Cup, only have 38 millon so perhaps none of this matters!

Tags: football, world-cup

32 Programmes

June 15, 2026 — Andrew Fowlie

Read 32 Programmes by Dave Roberts (or should that be 32 grams?), a football book, fitting for the start of the World Cup. It's a nostalgic book, based on the author's memories of attending matches, and who he was with and what was going on in his life at the time. I thoroughly enjoyed most of it, though it took a surprisingly sombre turn at the end, as the author suffered from mental and physical health issues.

The author's memories of racism in football crowds in the 1970s sadly didn't feel that far away from where we are now in society.

Tags: football, books

Muzzy

March 16, 2026 — Andrew Fowlie

Read Muzzy Izzet's autobiography (Muzzy) on the commute to and from work. A strange choice, as I am not a Leicester fan.

I read it for nostalgia. I remember Muzzey Izzet as a player, as his unusual and memorable name (his full name is Mustafa Izzet) was always on regional sports reporting. He was also unsual as a player in that 90s era of English football, being a skilful player with composure under pressure.

I enjoyed some of the memories and stories, and his charity work and hospital visits were genuinely inspiring.

Tags: football, books

Be still my beating Hearts...

March 11, 2026 — Andrew Fowlie

Some people say that to find out which football team you should support, you should take a ruler and a map, and find the closest professional club to your place of birth. If I did that, I think I'd get Hearts or Hibs. I've always found the name Heart of Midlothian alluring and charming, and unusually celebral for a football club, being named after a Walter Scott novel.

Now that I've shown you my credentials, I can say that I am thoroughly enjoying the title race for the Sottish Premier League and hoping that Hearts can win. I don't have them as favourites; I'm worried about Celtic's know-how in getting over the line. I think it might go down to the final round, perhaps even the final kick.

Tags: football