England versus Argentina
Thoroughly excited about the England-Argentina World Cup semi-final, which kicks off in just a few hours. What an occasion! heavily loaded with both football and political history.
I was disappointed to hear Falklands/Malvinas mentioned by both sets of fans in a jingoistic manner. We are rivals on the pitch, but all football fans should be united in agreement that we must solve these problems through dialogue and never again resort to armed conflict.
Tags: football, world-cup, conflict
Three lions and red lines
Watched England's inspiring victory against Mexico at the Azteca. What a special match and occasion, one of the most memorable and iconic England games of my life.
Pickford, Bellingham and Kane were particularly inspirational. When the going gets tough, lots of England players over the years have disappeared. They are scared. They don't want the ball. Those three were brave and stepped up and took responsibility.
Immensely disappointed by the decision to suspend Balogun's three-match ban. A terrible precedent that undermines sporting integrity, fairness and transparency. FIFA are not true to their values, and they gaslight fans and behave as though they are beyond reproach. A red line indeed, and I suspect the beginning of a long and lasting open confrontation between UEFA and FIFA.
Whilst this is the most shocking evidence of corruption and collusion between FIFA and global-powers impacting the game, it is only a matter of someone missing a game. We should be just as outraged over FIFA failure to uphold worker and minority rights and safety.
Tags: football, world-cup, FIFA
48 teams at the World Cup
This time round, the World Cup has expanded to 48 teams. My first thought was that this watered-down the competition. There are too many easy games, no group of death with 2 or 3 very strong teams, and minimal risk of elimination for big teams. I stand by most of this. Scotland are in arguably the toughest group. Obviously, 48 isn't a power of 2. The sense that it's watered-down feels more so since the first 72 matches only eliminate 16 teams, since 8 third-placed lucky losers go through to make 32, which is a power of 2, teams into the knockouts.
However, I was overlooking something. The expanded tournament partly addresses something wrong with the tournament: UEFA (European) nations are hugely over-represented. Let's take a look at the data by football federation. There are some quirks, e.g., for football, Australia changed to Asia from Oceania in 2010. I go back to 1998, because that's when the number of teams was last increased to 32.
For this 48 team 2026 edition,
- 2026: Asia 9, Africa 10, North and Central Americas 6, South America 6, Oceania 1, Europe 16
- 2022: Asia 6, Africa 5, North and Central Americas 4, South America 4, Oceania 0, Europe 13
- 2018: Asia 5, Africa 5, North and Central Americas 3, South America 5, Oceania 0, Europe 14
- 2014: Asia 3, Africa 5, North and Central Americas 4, South America 6, Oceania 0, Europe 13
- 2010: Asia 4, Africa 6, North and Central Americas 3, South America 5, Oceania 1, Europe 13
- 2006: Asia 4, Africa 5, North and Central Americas 4, South America 4, Oceania 1, Europe 14
- 2002: Asia 4, Africa 5, North and Central Americas 3, South America 5, Oceania 0, Europe 15
- 1998: Asia 4, Africa 5, North and Central Americas 3, South America 5, Oceania 0, Europe 15
The fraction of European teams has dropped from between 13 and 15 of 32, around 41% to 47%, to only 16 of 48, about 33%. This is still too high, in my opinion, but now we have twice as many teams from Africa, and more from Asia. Thus overall I think this is fairer and an improvement.
On that note, it is extraordinary that Nigeria didn't qualify. 10 African teams can make it, and they have footballing heritage and a population of 228 million, far ahead of Ethiopia, who also aren't there, at 129 million. Egypt, who are there, are third at 115 million. Morocco, arguably the best Africa side and who might go far at the World Cup, only have 38 million so perhaps none of this matters!