48 teams at the World Cup
This time round, the World Cup has expanded to 48 teams. My first thought was that this watered-down the competition. There are too many easy games, no group of death with 2 or 3 very strong teams, and minimal risk of elimination for big teams. I stand by most of this. Scotland are in arguably the toughest group. Obviously, 48 isn't a power of 2. The sense that it's watered-down feels more so since the first 72 matches only eliminate 16 teams, since 8 third-placed lucky losers go through to make 32, which is a power of 2, teams into the knockouts.
However, I was overlooking something. The expanded tournament partly addresses something wrong with the tournament: UEFA (European) nations are hugely over-represented. Let's take a look at the data by football federation. There are some quirks, e.g., for football, Australia changed to Asia from Oceania in 2010. I go back to 1998, because that's when the number of teams was last increased to 32.
For this 48 team 2026 edition,
- 2026: Asia 9, Africa 10, North and Central Americas 6, South America 6, Oceania 1, Europe 16
- 2022: Asia 6, Africa 5, North and Central Americas 4, South Ameria 4, Oceania 0, Europe 13
- 2018: Asia 5, Africa 5, North and Central Americas 3, South Ameria 5, Oceania 0, Europe 14
- 2014: Asia 3, Africa 5, North and Central Americas 4, South Ameria 6, Oceaia 0, Europe 13
- 2010: Asia 4, Africa 6, North and Central Americas 3, South America 5, Oceania 1, Europe 13
- 2006: Asia 4, Africa 5, North and Central Americas 4, South America 4, Oceania 1, Europe 14
- 2002: Asia 4, Africa 5, North and Central Americas 3, South America 5, Oceania 0, Europe 15
- 1998: Asia 4, Africa 5, North and Central Americas 3, South America 5, Oceania 0, Europe 15
The fraction of European teams has dropped from between 13 and 15 of 32, around 41% to 47%, to only 16 of 48, about 33%. This is still too high, in my opinion, but now we have twice as many teams from Africa, and more from Asia. Thus overall I think this is fairer and an improvement.
On that note, it is extraordinary that Nigeria didn't qualify. 10 African teams can make it, and they have footballing heritage and a population of 228 million, far ahead of Ethiopia, who also aren't there, at 129 millon. Egypt, who are there, are third at 115 million. Morocco, arguably the best Africa side and who might go far at the World Cup, only have 38 millon so perhaps none of this matters!